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“After an incredibly slowdown in 2020 and beyond, there is a chance that in 2020, the Philippine economy is projected to expand 5.3 percent this year before speeding up to 5.8 percent on average by 2022-2023, on the way to growth,” according to the World Bank (WB ) in its report for 2021. Philippines Economic Update (PEU), launched during a Zoom press briefing on December 7 ( More precisely, the gross national product (GNP) “will increase by 5.9% next year – up from its projection of 5.8% in September – and by 5.7% in 2023 against 5.5% “(, December 7). According to the “Duterte Administration’s Joint Statement of Economic Performance of the Philippines for the Third Quarter (Q3) of 2021” states it “The Philippine economy grew 7.1 percent over the course of the third quarter of 2021. This is an increase over -11.6 percent for the same period in the previous year. This is one of the strongest third quarter growths in the ASEAN and East Asia region “(, November 9). In addition, with a growth of 7.1 percent during the third quarter economic officials reported that the average growth in GDP from the beginning of January until September reached 4.9 percent, which is at the higher portion of the government’s goal range between 4 and 5%. In August, “the government reduced its economic growth target to 4-5%, from 6-7% previously to deal with the effects of tightening restrictions in the increasing cases of the new Delta variant in the pandemic” (, November 2. Sad, since the economy expanded 11.8 percent over the course of the first quarter following dropping 3.9 percent during its first quarter of 2009. It was officially out of recession by the second quarter following five months of recession. Social Economic Planner Karl Kendrick Chua told lawmakers in the first deliberations on the budget for 2022 plan with a budget of 5.0 trillion pesos that , since that the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has cut this year’s economic growth forecast for growth to 4-5% the GDP is expected to rise. By more than 9% in the coming year, so that nominal GDP could be restored to pre-COVID-19 levels P19.52 trillion ( Filipino Daily Investigator on August 26,). In the event that GDP fell 9.6 percent by the end of 2020 (the largest annual contraction in the economy) nominal GDP fell down to 17.94 billion pesos. The earlier goal of growth of 6-7 percent was set to allow GDP to rise to the pre-COVID level. Chua stated that 75 percent of the economy was brought to a halt at the highest point of COVID’s most strict COVID-19 containing measures by 2020 (Ibid. ). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its outlook for Philippine GDP growth for 2021 to 3.2 percent, down from 5.4 percent in June. Fitch Ratings lowered its projection to 4.4 percent, down instead of 5% and The ASEAN + 3 Macroeconomic Research Office lowered its projection to 4.3 percentage from 6.4 percent. In the Asian Development Bank (ADB) maintained its forecast on the growth of its gross national product (GDP) increase at 4.5 percent by 2021 as well as 5.5 percent in 2022, in its update for 2021 in the Asia development Outlook (ADO ). In the Q&A session of the press conference held on December 7, WB principal economist Kevin Chua was interviewed as people who are actors and influencers, as well as viewers or victims. An influential economist from the audience asked which numbers and statistics to trust, knowing certain that scientific measures can be evaluated and interpreted in a subjective manner. A prominent economist questioned the poverty estimates and income elasticities that are included in the GDP projections. Are the WB or the IMF as well as the ADB conducting online surveys to gather essential data about the factors that affect economic growth and are susceptible to the ailment? Chua stated that the WB and other international agencies employ economic models and simulations to do this. They also acknowledge “economic marks” as an “subject subject” stress that is crucial in the study of development and growth during this two-year COVID pandemic. “The recession that has been caused from the COVID-19 pandemic isn’t a typical recession. In comparison to other global crises, this one was sudden and profound when analyzing quarterly data, global production has dropped around three times that of during the global financial crisis in half the amount of time. “(, “Slow-healing scars: the legacy of the pandemic”). The economic consequences of persistent epidemics have been studied however it is for the first time an epidemic has affected the entire globe and is still hunting down and attacking all. The analysis of projections from the past epidemics show that the first impact on scale of output could be brief, with the tendency to fade within two years of the conclusion of the outbreak. But, it is to be noted that the previous epidemics examined in the study were – aside from swine influenza mostly localized and aren’t comparable to an outbreak that is a global scale (, 5 February). The IMF believes that the medium-term global output to be around three percent lower in 2024 than in the forecasts prior to the pandemic. The exact amount will vary from one country to the next depending on the direction of the pandemic the proportion of sectors that have high contact; the ability to adapt of both workers and businesses as well as the efficacy of policies. Market economies that are emerging or developing are likely to suffer more wounds than advanced economies, and the most likely losses will be in countries with low incomes. (, op. cit. ). “The extreme, especially deep recessions in the past were linked to ongoing production losses due to lower productivity. Although the pandemic has led to an increase in digitization and the development of manufacturing and delivery processes at least in a few countries the need to reallocate resources in order to adapt to a different normal could be more than during previous recessions. This could impact productivity growth in the near future. Another issue is the growth in market power for powerful firms caused by the pandemicthat is becoming more prevalent as competitors that are weaker fall. “Productivity is also impacted by COVID-19-related disruptions to production networks. Industries that require high contact, like entertainment and arts, accommodations as well as food and beverage services along with retail and wholesale trade aren’t as important to the core to production systems than, for instance the energy sector. However, historical research suggests that even the shocks that these sectors suffer can be significantly amplified through spillovers to other industries. School closures are common across all countries, however, the negative effects on the development of skills and learning are more severe in low-income countries. The long-term loss of income for individuals and the consequent damage to productivity overall could be the most significant legacy of the COVID-19 crises “(Ibid. ). The IMF suggests that countries adapt their economic policies according to various stages of the pandemic through providing better targeted assistance for affected businesses and households as well as public investment. Human capital development is the top priority and should be supported by adequate funds dedicated to education and health. Jobs should be protected through policies that facilitate mobility of professionals and encouraging innovation and competition. Infrastructure investment by the public sector should be increased in conjunction and collaboration and with companies in the private sector. “Finally A strong international collaboration will be required to deal with the ever-growing differences between countries. It is crucial that countries with financial constraints have access to adequate international liquidity to finance development. In terms of health it is also essential to ensure an adequate supply and distribution of vaccines – notably with sufficient funds of the COVAX facility that will aid countries in developing countries to fight the pandemic and prevent worse wounds. >>, warns the IMF (Ibid. ). True. It is ideal for emerging economies such as the Philippines to concentrate on the steps to take towards an era of normality within this pandemic that is still lingering. Amelia HC Ylagan is a Doctor of Business Administration from the University of the Philippines.

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